Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Nilai Tukar Rupiah dan IHSG Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Sektor Teknologi

Abstrak

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) on the stock prices of technology sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2021–2024. The study is motivated by the rapid growth of the technology sector and its sensitivity to macroeconomic changes. Fluctuations in inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and the IHSG are expected to influence investor decisions and stock price movements. Previous studies have produced inconsistent findings regarding the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices, highlighting the need for updated empirical evidence. This research employed a quantitative method with a causality approach using secondary quarterly data obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bank Indonesia, and the Central Statistics Agency. Purposive sampling was applied, resulting in 240 observations. The independent variables were inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and the IHSG, while the dependent variable was stock prices measured by closing prices. Data were analyzed using classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression, the F-test, t-test, and the coefficient of determination with statistical software. The findings reveal that inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and the IHSG simultaneously have a significant effect on stock prices. Partially, each variable also significantly affects stock prices, with the IHSG emerging as the most dominant factor. The Adjusted R Square value of 0.248 indicates that 24.8% of stock price variation is explained by the four macroeconomic variables, while 75.2% is attribuTabel to other factors. These findings provide useful insights for investors, companies, and policymakers in understanding stock price dynamics in Indonesia’s technology sector.